Today, Kerala has the highest number of Covid-19 cases in India

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Over a year later, it’s a very different story. Controversially, KK Shailaja was excluded from the state cabinet after the 2021 elections, and is no longer Minister of Health – despite her success in dealing with the first wave of the pandemic.

And the state has seen a constantly high rate of Covid cases since April’s devastating second wave. While most other parts of the country are now seeing much lower numbers of cases and restrictions are gradually being relaxed, around 17% of Kerala’s population are currently testing positive for the virus.

“Almost 68% of total cases in the last week were from Kerala. We’re still witnessing the second surge, it’s not over,” said national Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan.

Now, in a state with a population of around 35 million, there are still between 100 and 200 recorded daily deaths. And, as in other parts of the country, the real figure is likely to be significantly higher. Since April 1st this year, over 19,000 people in the state have died as a result of the virus.

Sadly, part of the explanation lies in Kerala’s earlier success. A study in March 2021 showed that only around 11% of the population of Kerala had antibodies to Covid-19, since a relatively low number had been infected with the virus, while the overall figure for the rest of the country was 20%. People simply had less natural immunity. When the Delta variant arrived in May, it was able to spread more rapidly.

Yet this was certainly not the only reason, and is by no means a justification for the “herd immunity” argument. Kerala also has a population density that is double the national average, meaning that the virus was always more likely to spread, and the state had celebrated a number of religious festivals and large gatherings earlier this year. The humid climate also contributes to the high infection rate.

In addition, there is the more human dimension: healthcare workers responsible for checking communities and contact tracing have become exhausted after more than a year of hard work, and are more liable to make errors.

One other key factor may point less to Kerala’s failings than those of India as a whole. The state has the highest testing rate in India, and, as a result, it is estimated that one in six cases are detected. In the country overall, this figure is one in thirty-three.

Perhaps they do not, after all, have the highest number of cases of any Indian state – only the highest number of reported cases.

The state government of Kerala opposes the BJP

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It’s not just a question of healthcare. Kerala’s failure has given the BJP the chance to attack the Communist state government and use the crisis for political propaganda, with BJP leader V Muralidharan accusing the Chief Minister of “failing to protect people’s lives” – perhaps unconscious of the irony, given that PM Narendra Modi has also failed so shockingly in that regard.

In other respects, Kerala still has an impressive record in dealing with Covid-19. Despite the high number of cases at the moment, the state still boasts the lowest mortality rate in the country, at 0.5%, compared to the national average of 1.4%. While there are more cases recorded, many more people who contract the virus survive.

The state’s healthcare infrastructure has also proved much more capable than many others in dealing with the effects of the virus, even during the last challenging months. Unlike most of the country, there have been no shortages of oxygen, medication, or hospital beds. In addition, they have done with promoting vaccinations, with the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the country.

The BJP may accuse Kerala as being a “model of mismanagement” – but it’s simply another example of how the ruling party makes use of every event, however tragic, as an opportunity to attack its political rivals. It’s a distraction from the real reason why Covid-19 has wreaked such havoc in India: mismanagement at the highest level, at the hands of the Prime Minister himself.