Change in fortunes
Over a year later, it’s a very different story. Controversially, KK Shailaja was excluded from the state cabinet after the 2021 elections, and is no longer Minister of Health – despite her success in dealing with the first wave of the pandemic.
And the state has seen a constantly high rate of Covid cases since April’s devastating second wave. While most other parts of the country are now seeing much lower numbers of cases and restrictions are gradually being relaxed, around 17% of Kerala’s population are currently testing positive for the virus.
“Almost 68% of total cases in the last week were from Kerala. We’re still witnessing the second surge, it’s not over,” said national Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan.
Now, in a state with a population of around 35 million, there are still between 100 and 200 recorded daily deaths. And, as in other parts of the country, the real figure is likely to be significantly higher. Since April 1st this year, over 19,000 people in the state have died as a result of the virus.
Sadly, part of the explanation lies in Kerala’s earlier success. A study in March 2021 showed that only around 11% of the population of Kerala had antibodies to Covid-19, since a relatively low number had been infected with the virus, while the overall figure for the rest of the country was 20%. People simply had less natural immunity. When the Delta variant arrived in May, it was able to spread more rapidly.
Yet this was certainly not the only reason, and is by no means a justification for the “herd immunity” argument. Kerala also has a population density that is double the national average, meaning that the virus was always more likely to spread, and the state had celebrated a number of religious festivals and large gatherings earlier this year. The humid climate also contributes to the high infection rate.
In addition, there is the more human dimension: healthcare workers responsible for checking communities and contact tracing have become exhausted after more than a year of hard work, and are more liable to make errors.
One other key factor may point less to Kerala’s failings than those of India as a whole. The state has the highest testing rate in India, and, as a result, it is estimated that one in six cases are detected. In the country overall, this figure is one in thirty-three.
Perhaps they do not, after all, have the highest number of cases of any Indian state – only the highest number of reported cases.