It's too early to give up social distancing - even for a festival

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Of course, nobody knows. Try as they might, even the world’s top scientists have been unable to accurately predict the course of this pandemic. So let’s look at the case to be cautious first.

It’s true that the vaccination program is moving forward, but we’re still not even close to getting it to everyone who needs it. More worryingly, we know that it’s not an absolute guarantee that all this is over. Europe has a much higher vaccination rate than India, and is currently experiencing a surge in cases as the cold winter weather sets in.

The vaccine is huge progress, but being vaccinated doesn’t mean that you can’t catch the coronavirus. It makes it much less likely — and if you do, you almost certainly won’t suffer the most severe Covid symptoms. But the fact is that you can still catch it and spread it. And there are still a lot of people who remain unvaccinated and may be in real danger if they’re exposed to it.

Modi’s grandiose boasts that India had defeated Covid in March this year were proved to be horribly wrong; it was a shocking display of governmental mismanagement that cost thousands of lives. We mustn’t make the same mistake again. This time we’re better prepared, with higher rates of both vaccination and natural immunity, but no one wants to see a third wave. It’s still a good idea to avoid crowded places whenever possible, even though it may be harder than usual during party season. And it’s still a good idea to wear a mask.

One health expert, Dr C Lahariya, put it this way: “People have started to believe that vaccination is an alternative to masking, spacing and hand cleaning. All four are complimentary. Until early next year, we can't lower our guard.”

We need to celebrate how far we've come - and Diwali is a good occasion for it

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We can recognise the need for caution and still celebrate how far we’ve come — and how much brighter everything looks this Diwali than it did last year.

Only a few months ago India was registering over a hundred thousand new cases of Covid every day, while now we’re down to around 13,000. The virus is still with us, but for the moment it’s in decline. Today, India only accounts for 3% of cases worldwide.

We can’t be complacent — and there’s a real chance that the virus could mutate into an even more dangerous form — but the public health crisis is nowhere near as bad as it was a few months ago.  

We’ve learned about Covid the hard way, and we can’t afford to forget those lessons. Cases spiked after last year’s Diwali, and more festivals and large gatherings in early 2021 – the Kumbh Mela, Holi, and the election campaign — led to soaring infection rates.

The vaccination is helping, but there are other factors we need to remember. A Harvard study proved that air pollution is linked to higher numbers of Covid infections, and a significantly higher death rate. As life goes back to normal in the cities, so do pollution levels. Meanwhile, the additional pollution from Diwali firecrackers makes things even worse, and the air quality in Delhi is always worse at this time of year as a result of stubble-burning in the fields to the north.

It's time to celebrate – but with caution. Dr Hemant Thacker summed it up in an interview for India Today: “Covid isn't over,” he said. “If you have a masked Diwali this year, you can bask in non-Covid glory next year.”